Did Inflation Just Kill The FIRE Movement?
If you’re an avid reader of financial independence blogs you may have noticed something a little strange recently — FIRE Bloggers have been complaining about a drop-off in reader web-traffic to their blogs. A certain amount of traffic variation is perfectly normal, just like the number of cars passing down a road might vary. But bloggers like RetireBy40 and Accidental FIRE have been recently posting about significant declines in blog readership.
While I’m barely in the same class as those great bloggers, I also saw steady declines in reader pageviews through 2022.
What’s going on here? Are readers really loosing interest in financial independence, investing, and/or early retirement? It seems unfathomable to someone like myself, because the desire for freedom, stability, and wealth seems universal. It’s not like we humans desire to live paycheck-to-paycheck.
Unfortunately, there were a number of things going on in 2022 that might have had a big effect on individual finances…
Namely, inflation and a sinking stock market.
The Inflation Gut Punch
Did inflation just cancel the FIRE movement? Without a doubt, I believe inflation was a gut punch to household budgets in 2022. Mine included. I had to pull-out all of my best frugal tricks and techniques to keep our expenses down last year… and I still wasn’t terribly successful. Inflation was a relentless beast.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, food prices increased 10.5%, energy prices increased 7.3%, and shelter increased 7.5% in 2022. For consumers used to decades of minimal inflation, 2022 was a year of BIG price increases.
These BLS inflation numbers are averages of course, and the actually price increases can vary from city to city and person to person.
For example, moving from Washington State to Arizona, the Tako family actually experienced price deflation, but only for avocados. That’s right, avocados are cheaper here in the Grand Canyon State! In contrast, a slab of salmon is considerably more expensive here. To put it simply, the kind of inflation you personally experienced in 2022 has a lot to do with where you live and what you consume.
For the Tako family, our food budget rose from $500 a month to $650 a month. That’s a increase of $150, or 30%, although that’s not strictly an apples to apples comparison because of our move in 2022.
I can understand why other families are feeling strapped if their food budgets have gone-up by similar amounts. This budget stress may now have families feeling like saving 50% or more of their income (a common goal among FIRE aficionados) is now unachievable.
It’s no wonder the dream of financial independence isn’t a hot topic right now. Most folks are just trying to pay the rent and the grocery bill!
Saving has always been something of a difficult prospect, but it’s even more of a challenge in 2023.
The Sinking Stock Market
Of course inflation was just ONE shock to household budgets in 2022, a sinking stock market (-19.5% in 2022) provided another. When stock prices are sinking, this puts a serious damper on household enthusiasm for investing. All that hard-earned savings going up in smoke was a definite setback for those seeking financial independence.
This stinky stock market might be discouraging a lot of folks early in their financial independence journey. It’s also another reason why FIRE blog traffic is down. When the dream of investing returns evaporates, so does the reader blog traffic about living off those returns.
If you’re young, and haven’t experienced sizeable stock market setbacks like this before, I have a word of advice — Get used to it. This is exactly how the stock market works. There can be wild swings from year-to-year. One bad year is NOT a predictor of the future, so keep saving and investing regardless of “one bad year”.
Unfortunately, I think this is exactly what’s happened to many of the FIRE blog readers. People get discouraged by losses, and the safety of a “regular” income (aka job) has many people “sheltering in-place” at jobs they don’t really enjoy.
Dreaming of a life paid for by investment returns might seem like a fools errand right now.
Where Do I Go From Here?
Of course, this is all just speculation on my part. I have no hard evidence to support my theory, other than my own blog statistics. I suppose it’s possible that it’s just me, but this seems very unlikely.
Do you have a theory as to why this is happening? Please share it in the comments!
Inflation and a sinking stock market seem like the most likely culprits to me. Other plausible theories include a shift away from blog reading — Perhaps people just aren’t interested in blogs anymore, opting for “short form” writing like Twitter instead of “long form” writing like blogs. There may be some truth to this, as I’ve seen steady growth in Twitter followers while blog subscribers remain fairly flat.
Fortunately readership of this blog hasn’t entirely dried-up. There’s still several thousand loyal readers that come back regularly to read the latest post, and drop a friendly comment. Thanks for reading you guys! You are the best! Because of you I’m not giving up just yet!
For now, like other bloggers, I’m simply going to be dialing back the frequency of posting compared to previous years — one or two posts a month seems about the right cadence for new posts.
To know when new post drop, I suggest either subscribing to email notifications, or following me on Twitter. Either way, whenever I post something new, those outlets will get a ping.
As always, thanks for reading! And I’ll see you next time!
[Image Credit: Flickr]
First off, thanks for the shout-out and kind words but let me correct you. When you write “There’s still several thousand loyal readers that come back regularly to read the latest post, and drop a friendly comment. ” then it confirms that I am not even in the same universe as you as a blogger, much less “class”, haha. I only wish I had that kind of audience!
Either way I did another post last November titled “Is Interest In Financial Independence And FIRE A Bull Market Phenomenon?” that makes many of the points you detailed about the market and inflation and also shows the Google search trend data for terms related to FIRE. Yes interest in FIRE seems to be very very low, especially as compared to 2018 – 2019 which I would consider the zenith. I miss those days but time marches on. Great post dude and glad to hear you’ll still be writing!
Definitely seems to be a positive correlation between FI (not just FIRE) readership and bull markets. Well I’d say it probably goes down when there’s a bear, but think it’ll pick up again over the course of the next year or two.
The sad part is, this is exactly when those FIRE wannabes (myself included) should be reading more and more….watching and learning from those ahead of us and how they are holding up when things turn. Like you said, this is going to happen, over and over again. Watch how those past their FIRE number react and adapt: take notes from those that succeed and take notes from those that are struggling. That way you’re just even more set up when your time comes. Sh*t will happen. Learn how to efficiently adapt to it, and learn that by watching those living it. Please keep writing through the down times, so that when it comes back up, we have an example to follow to prep for the next down.
Good post.
FI Dreams are easier when everyone’s assets are rising. But learning to stay the course and keep investing through the bears is a more important lesson. So keep bringing it to the masses. : O)
Invest now, while things are on sale.
cd : O)
There may be a difference in “FIRE” blog traffic currently vs “personal finance” site traffic. When budgets are tight and people are spending down their savings and fighting to make ends meet, seems like there should be an increase in people searching for things like “How to save money on groceries”, right?
I don’t have a blog or access to any traffic data, but I can say anecdotally that the topics in the forums I frequent have shifted. More topics around day to day life, how to DIY, if dividend investing makes sense, how to best shop for cars/contractors/etc – and less generational estate planning, crypto, can withdrawal rates be above 4%. That would imply a shift in what people are searching for
Thanks for the mention!
I think inflation and the bear market are a big part of it.
Life is more difficult for many people. Even people making over $100,000/year are complaining. FI is out of the question when outflow is so high.
Hopefully, inflation will calm down this year and people will feel better again.
Not sure if blog readers will come back, though. Hope for the best.
I do think the FIRE movement is fading due to inflation, the bear market, and also the increased flexibility to earn money in more flexible and enjoyable ways.
I don’t think it’s killed, but it’s definitely dying.
Sam
I think there is a bigger overall problem in the community which is the number of larger blogs that have gone off the rails. There are a few categories of it:
Blogs by people that are pretending to be retired but really aren’t that are making a living selling “coaching” on how other people can “retire” like them. Easiest way to make money in America is selling how to get rich, live a slow paced life, retire, etc to other people.
Blogging real estate “millionaires” that are selling courses on making money either directly or through affiliate crowdfunding sites (but not using their techniques to make themselves millions…go figure).
Blogs by people that could retire (maybe-who knows if they are being truthful) but don’t know what enough is and almost 100% of content is now based around selling their programs, conferences, affiliate links, sketchy sponsored posts, credit card links, financial advisors, etc… (i.e. the popular “physician” blogs)
Blogs writing insane things and headlines to get pageviews at any cost. FS among others.
I believe it turns off a lot of people (they aren’t stupid) and hurts everyone else doing good personal finance writing through lower pageviews.
I need to start selling some courses. Any suggestions? I see a lot of Blogger sell $1000-$2000 courses. Seems pretty lucrative!
What are some absurd headlines I’ve written where the posts don’t have substance. I’d love to analyze them and see how I can improve.
Thanks for all the feedback you can provide! I think, being a fake retiree is the best solution.
Sam
I’m in that boat of seeing a decline in traffic as well. I think the correlation between inflation and FIRE makes perfect sense. It’s tough for folks to think about financial independence when it’s a struggle to even pay for groceries. Hopefully, the FIRE movement wasn’t just a passing fad and makes a resurgence when things level off again and the next bull market comes around.
Jim @ Route to Retire recently posted…Freezing Your Child’s Credit: Why It’s Critical and How To Do It
Fortunately over here I’ve maintained my dozens of readers!
Inflation and the stock market? No kidding about the pain it’s dished out. March/April 2023 will be four years since I quit the job. In that timeframe we’ve seen two bear markets, raging inflation, and had our lease terminated sending us into the housing market at the worst possible time.
I think about those retirees from 2012-2018 that saw no inflation, nice returns, and abundant/cheap housing to both rent or buy.
Fortunately since February 2020 the S&P 500 still had a 3% annualized real rate of return with dividends when adjusted for inflation, so it’s not completely terrible.
I’m sure there’s some sort of correlation between inflation and FIRE. FIRE certainly seems easier and more attainable when everything is firing on all cylinders.
Tawcan recently posted…5 stocks we plan to buy in 2023
Could also be there are more and more financial bloggers saturating market with similar messages. I’m still a fan of Tako though.
I agree with the sentiment that FIRE interest is more correlated to bull markets. When the net worth is ripping, it’s a lot easier to imagine the possibilities of realistically retiring early. When the market sinks and takes the net worth down with it, it’s time to batten down the hatches and focus on maintaining cash flow.
Certainly the market is saturated and there are more places to consume content, be it via podcast or newsletter, that cuts into the blog readership of years past. I try to focus on topics on the fringes of FIRE, but it is difficult to write on some of the main FIRE tenets in a way that hasn’t already been said–much more eloquently at that–by several of the OGs of the space.
Impersonal Finances recently posted…Analyzing The All-Time Results Of The Super Bowl Indicator
Great article and like the folks above, I tend to agree the bear markets discourage interest in FI, particularly, as you point out, when the focus is simply paying the monthly grocery bill.
As a total fringe commodity, Fates on Fire has always had a very small, but fiercly loyal readership, so I actually tend to gain readers glacially, yet incrementally. But not thousands.
Like you, Dave and many others, I’m also further dialing down my frequency in 2023 to focus on non-Fi writing. Post tomorrow on that.
It’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Thanks again for a kick-ass article!
In addition to the factors you mention it might also be that most bloggers have reduced their cadence to monthly updates , which end up being very similar month over month mostly because they have a good control on their budgets and keep it consistent. While that is a good thing, it means there is not much new in the monthly update posts.
Also, there are more mediums now – some people provide updates via instagram posts or twitter threads, which are easier to read and less time consuming than a blog post.
In other words, it could be multiple things that cause this.
I will continue coming back to read your updates 🙂
I love reading your blog posts. It helps keep me going. I agree – buy stocks now while they’re on sale!
We can do it, everyone!
Mr Tako
We love reading your posts. We look forward to them every month.
Do you think that stocks are cheap at present?
Looking forward to more beautiful meal photos. My wife and look forward to new ideas.
Also hopefully a update on a new home or a update on building one.
What is it like living in your new state?
We are from Australia.
Mr Tako
We love reading your posts. We look forward to them every month.
Do you think that stocks are cheap at present?
Looking forward to more beautiful meal photos. My wife and look forward to new ideas.
Also hopefully a update on a new home or a update on building one.
What is it like living in your new state?
We are from Australia.
My blog readership has dropped too, but probably doesn’t help when you go sell it 😉 Since I bought it back though I’ve noticed a continual drop as well, which I assumed was due to Google algorithm changes which seem to line up or just the simple fact that more and more eyeballs are shifting over to quick-hit social media platforms vs our long form stuff. And with video and phones becoming so much bigger over the past decade it’s surely not helping the situation! But oh well… Good thing we enjoy this stuff!!
I think a continually rising stock market was a big factor in the FIRE interest. People were made to believe that it could keep going up indefinitely. Then, when the stock market started faltering, people got back to reality that it’s not as easy as it had seemed to be. We personally saw our net worth triple in the period between 2013-2021 (from $3M to $9M). Then went on to lose about $1M in a matter of a few months. So, that definitely scared me a lot. My husband and I were thinking of retiring in 2024 but I think we’ll need to hold off another 2 years. I’m currently 53 and husband is 58. Given our primary home is worth about $2M and we spend about $250K per year (of which $150K is for necessities and $100K of indulgences), to feel secure, I am aiming for investments of about $7M. We currently have about $6M right now. So, I’m hoping to gain back the $1M we lost by working until 2026. Our combined salaries per year is about $800K.
Great post Mr Tako, I’m glad you can load up on those tasty avocado’s for cheap down there in Arizona. I think, as a whole people are just more consumed by video these days. Attention spans seem to have gotten shorter, and maybe that has hurt blogs. Who knows, I still love your stuff though!
I think a lot of it has to do with less interesting content being churned out by FIRE bloggers. Many bloggers seem to be rehashing old posts and often not making it clear at the onset that it’s an updated post. Add in the clickbait headlines some continue to put out there along with the poor me mindset and so many bloggers I used to read I now greet their articles with nothing more than an eyeroll and do not read. If FIRE bloggers want to get eyes back on their articles I suggest post less and up the quality without articles sprinkled with multiple links that get them commission which once one becomes aware of makes it obvious what the point of the article is.
Funny enough I’m seeing fairly consistent traffic but haven’t been around long enough to really get up into the ranks. I hope it continues but will have to see!
I don’t think it’s inflation or the stock market necessarily that’s the cause of declining readership, it’s just people’s attention spans are declining and with the mainstream availability of podcasts, YouTube videos, TikTok, etc, people can consume their FI content in various ways, and reading takes too much effort.
Like others have said as well, sometimes bloggers recycle posts and put too many ads/affiliate links so that can turn off readers.
Blogging has been around longer than some of these other mediums, so time will tell what prevails!